Taking into account all greenhouse gases, France (Mainland and Overseas territories included in the EU, excluding the LULUCF sector) emitted 464.6 Mt CO₂e, while the LULUCF sector (Land use, land-use change, and forestry, which represents a carbon sink) absorbed 31.9 Mt. The net balance is 432.7 Mt CO₂e.

The year 2018 has been preleminary pre-estimated using indicators while awaiting for the results of the 2020 inventory for the years 1990-2018. According to this approximation, French GHG emissions (Mainland and Overseas territories included in the EU, excluding the LULUCF sector) should reach 445.3 Mt CO₂e, a decrease of -4.2% between 2017 and 2018.

Durring the 1990-2017 period, annual greenhouse gas emissions in France (Mainland and Overseas territories included in the EU, excluding the LULUCF sector) decreased from 548 Mt CO₂e in 1990 to 464.6 Mt CO₂e in 2017, a decrease of 15%.

Under the energy transition Act [LTE, Article 173], the “low-carbon” national strategy (“SNBC”) is the roadmap for France to meet its GHG emisions reduction targets [-40% in 2030 and -75% in 2050 (base 1990), cf. art. 1 of the LTE] towards carbon neutrality in 2050. It therefore contributes to the EU’s commitment under the Paris Agreement, and its target of carbon neutrality in 2050 also fits into this context.

For this purpose, it provides the measures to be implemented in public, sectoral and territorial policies. Decree 2015-1491 sets out the first three carbon budgets [GHG emission ceilings not to exceed over five-year periods at national level] to define the path of decline in emissions to be monitored. Since then, this “SNBC” has been revised (“SNBC-2”, see below) and the following budgets have been revised. Caution, the year 2018 is pre-estimated, the 2018 refined estimate is to be published in 2020 at the publication of the inventory results relative to the years 1990 to 2018. Moreover, each year, the emissions of the previous years are recalculated and may be slightly re-estimated, based on inventory improvement. This figure may therefore be slightly changed.

The first carbon budget was exceeded by 3.5%. In fact, between 2014 and 2017, greenhouse gas emissions (excluding LULUCF) stopped their downward trajectory (observed from 1990 to 2013) and increased annually from 0.2 to 0.9 % (+ 0.9% between 2016 and 2017, + 0.2% between 2015 and 2016, + 1.1% between 2014 and 2015). This increase in GHG emissions is mainly related to two sectors: energy transformation and residential-tertiary ; and to a lesser extent to the transport sector. As for the energy transformation sector, it is more specifically the electricity production sub-sector that explains the rise in these CO₂ emissions. It should be noted that the 2014 level was historically low due to coal consumption halved compared to 2013 and a particularly mild winter. During the 2014-2017 period, emissions have increased again due to a shutdown of some units of nuclear power plants and less mild winters to return to the level of 2011-2013. The recent rise in CO2 emissions from the residential-tertiary sector (especially in 2015) is mainly due to the residential sub-sector (+4.8 MtCO₂ in 2017 compared to 2014). The year 2014 was a particularly mild year in which the residential heating needs were lower compared to other years. The increase in CO₂ emissions in the transport sector, which is lower than in the previous sectors, is due to higher emissions from gasoline vehicles (+1.4 MtCO₂ in 2017 compared to 2014).

Provided by the energy transition Act [LTE, Article 173], the SNBC constitutes the roadmap to allow France to reach its GHG emission reduction targets [-40% in 2030 and -75% in 2050 (base 1990), cf. art. 1 of the LTE] towards carbon neutrality in 2050. It therefore contributes to the EU’s commitment under the Paris Agreement, and its carbon neutrality in 2050 target also fits into this context.

After the first SNBC (SNBC-1) of 2015, a revised SNBC project (SNBC-2) was published on December 6, 2018. In its WAM scenario (with additional measures), it is expected that GHG emissions will reach a level of 80 Mt CO₂e (excluding LULUCF) in 2050 (compared to 546 Mt CO₂e in 1990). Without explicitly setting it as a national reduction target, the revised SNBC would not therefore imply emissions devided by 4 by 2050 (factor 4), but by 6.9 (or -85%, base 1990). In March 2019, the Environmental Authority published a notice on this SNBC-2 project, pointing out certain shortcomings. On April 9, 2019, the Economic, Social and Environmental Council (EESC) also adopted its opinion on this project, pointing out its shortcomings and inaccuracies. The final adoption of the SNBC is expected in late 2019 or early 2020.

Extract from SNBC-2: « The objective of neutrality by 2050 implies an almost complete decarbonization of the transport sector, either by switching to electric motors, or by switching to biofuel and biogas. A share of non-bio-based fuels is, however, reserved for 2050 for air transport and international bunkers. There is the assumption of a growing demand for mobility but decoupled from economic growth and strong assumptions in terms of efficiency and type of motorization. The scenario mobilizes all of the following five levers: energy consumed by vehicles decarbonization; vehicles energy performance in order to limit energy consumption; control of growth in demand; modal transfer; and optimization of the vehicle use for the passengers and freight transport.

Electrification, about two to three times more efficient than thermal solutions in terms of energy efficiency at vehicle level, is favored in the long term, in particular for private vehicles (100% sales of new private vehicles are electric from 2040). It is developing ambitiously since it assumes a five-fold increase in sales of electric vehicles by 2022 (corresponding to the commitment of the 2018-2022 Strategic Automotive Contract). In 2030, the scenario reaches a share of 35% of electric passenger cars and 10% of plug-in hybrid passenger cars in new vehicle sales. Significant efforts are also being made regarding the vehicles’ efficiency, in particular for thermal vehicles. The scenario notably aims for a level of 4L/100km in sales in 2030. New electric vehicles will reach a level of 12.5 kWh / 100km by 2050 (around 40% less consumption compared to today).

A more balanced mix (renewable gas, electricity, biofuels) is sought for the freight transport due to greater constraints on the engines associated with this type of transport. Electrification is slower than for passenger cars. Significant energy efficiency efforts are also made for heavy duty vehicles: depending on the engine-type, efficiency gains between 35 and 40% are obtained by 2050. Energy efficiency gains and decarbonization concern all modes of transport. The scenario notably foresees a gradual development of biofuels in aviation up to 50% by 2050. Maritime and fluvial transports are entirely carbon-free for domestic emissions by 2050 and carbon-free at 50% for international bunkers.

The scenario assumes a control of the increase in traffic both for the passenger and freight transports, of a modal transfer towards active mobilities, collective transport and bulk transport as well as the optimization of vehicle use. Passenger traffic in passenger-km in all modes increase by 26% between 2015 and 2050 but in a more moderate way than in a trend scenario notably thanks to the development of telework and the limitation of urban sprawl. Modal transfer is encouraged. The bicycle modal share is multiplied by 4 from 2030. Public transport is developing strongly with an increase in their modal share of 7 points, as are shared mobility and carpooling. In total, this makes it possible to contain passenger car traffic, which declines by around 2% between 2015 and 2050. Freight traffic in tonne-km increases by 40%, but in a more limited way than in a trend scenario thanks to the development of circular economy and short cycle. Rail and fluvial freights grow. Truck loading rates increase. Truck traffic growth is contained at 12% by 2050. »

Extract of the SNBC-2 : « For this sector, the scenario assumes a gradual strengthening of environmental regulations for new construction, in particular via the introduction of a greenhouse gas emission criteria over the entire lifecycle. Demographic assumptions lead us to consider that the volume of new construction decreases continuously until 2050.
The scenario also assumes that a large majority of the building stock, starting with the most energy-intensive homes, is renovated in order to reach the target of a 100% “Low Consumption Buildings” on average in 2050. In in the residential sector, the pace of renovation reaches around 300,000 equivalent complete renovations [The energy gain achieved during an equivalent complete renovation corresponds to the gain achieved during the renovation of an entire building to a very efficient level. The scenario does not assume a breakdown between renovation by stages or renovation once] on average over the period 2015-2030 and then increases to reach 700,000 equivalent complete renovations on average over the period 2030-2050. The tertiary sector is experiencing a similar pace of renovation.
This is based on the electrification of uses other than heating and a more varied energy mix for this latter use, with in particular significant use of heat pumps and district heating networks. Efficiency gains from all equipment used in buildings are assumed. The scenario also uses a decrease in the energy need on certain items thanks to the dissemination of technologies making it possible to reduce it (intelligent management system, efficient mixer, etc.), to a different organization of buildings (bioclimatic design, etc.) and to virtuous individual behavior (heating temperature lowered by 1 ° C by 2050). »

Extract of the SNBC-2 : « In the industrial sector, the scenario is based on the efficiency and electrification of processes. Energy efficiency gains vary depending on the sector. In 2030, the scenario assumes gains between 10% and 30%. In 2050, the gains increase between 20% and 40%. The electrification rate increases slightly between 2015 and 2030 (from 38% to 43%) and then more rapidly until 2050, reaching more than 70% of final consumption by that time.

The industrial sector also sees its non-energy emissions decrease thanks to the greater use of materials with low carbon impacts (low carbon cement, bio-based chemistry, carbon-free hydrogen, etc.). More systematic use of wood in materials should also reduce the need for materials with a higher carbon footprint. The industry competitiveness is preserved towards competing industries coming from regions of the world with lower climatic requirements, in order to keep a similar production level to 2015 and therefore limit imports with excessively high carbon content. A variant with an increase in French production is being studied in order to look at what would be the energy, climatic (considering territorial emissions and carbon footprint) and macro-economic impacts of a higher relocation of production in France. »

Extract of the SNBC-2 : « With the objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the scenario is based on the implementation of all technical levers to the maximum of their potential (legume crops, nitrogen cycle optimization, reduction of protein surpluses in animal rations, ploughing practices, etc.), on the evolution of agricultural systems (agroforestry, organic agriculture, grass farming, artificialisation limitation), on the domestic demand change (alignment with nutritional benchmarks by 2035, reduction in food waste) and an increasing production of energy and bio-based materials by the agricultural system.

In terms of energy consumption, energy efficiency and the control of needs allow consumption to be halved by 2050. Significant electrification takes place through the use of heat pumps or electric tractors when possible. The agriculture sector plays an important role in the production of bio-based energy resources, in particular through the recovery of its waste. Almost two-thirds of the biomass mobilized by 2050 comes directly or indirectly from the agricultural sector. »

Extract of the SNBC-2 : « The energy sector is almost completely decarbonized [Decarbonization is only “almost complete” given the “incompressible” residual leakage of renewable gases]. The energy mix at 2050 is composed of renewable and recovery heat (90 to 100 TWh), biomass (400 to 450 TWh) and decarbonated electricity (remaining balance of 600 to 650 TWh, part of which is used for conversions to other vectors of final energy: hydrogen, gas, etc.). In 2050, the renewable gas production is in a range from 195 to 295 TWh. The share of gas used in the residential and tertiary sector is decreasing sharply.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies are also used, in a cautious manner, in the reference scenario. In 2050, they would make it possible to avoid around 6 MtCO₂/year in industry and to achieve annually a dozen MtCO₂ of negative emissions on energy production plants from biomass (“BECC”).  »

Extract of the SNBC-2 : « A more circular economy is being set up with drastic increasing recycling rates and extensive use of eco-design. Wastes are almost entirely recovered. »

The total objective for the EU is a reduction in emissions of -43% (base 2005) for the sectors targeted by the ETS (Greenhouse Gas Emission Quota Trading System (GHG) or ETS). These are large and averege industrial and energy plants and aviation.

This is translated into a total allowance limit per year, free and charged. This total limit decreases, by gradually restricting each year the amount of free allowances but also by restricting the number of charged allowances (by the means of the mechanism known as “market stability reserve” or MSR). There is no total allowance limits defined by Member State. Only free allowances are set per Member State. France can therefore buy as many charged allowances as desired, as long as the EU total level is not exceeded. In 2017, 72.6 Mt CO₂e of free allowances were allocated to France, and France issued 103.1 MtCO₂e for the ETS sectors. It therefore bought 30.5 Mt CO₂e of charged allowances.

The objective targeting non-ETS sectors is implemented within the framework of Decision 406/2009/EC, called ESD (Effort Sharing Decision) which establishes the reduction efforts breakdown of the Member States for these sectors over the period 2013 -2020. In this context, France has been assigned a GHG emission reduction target from these sectors by -14% compared to 2005. France’s non-ETS emissions, pre-estimated by the EEA according to the national inventory established by Citepa, amounted in 2017 to 354.7 Mt CO₂e (source: EEA report on trends and projections, Nov. 2018 edition, pp.86-87). Thus, these emissions must fall further by 12.2 Mt CO₂e between 2017 and 2020 to reach the target set for 2020, i.e. a decrease of 4.1 Mt CO₂e per year on average. Between 2016 and 2017, according to provisional data from the EEA, these emissions decreased by 2.8 Mt CO₂e.

Decision 406/2009/EC, known as the ESD (Effort Sharing Decision) which establishes the reduction efforts breakdown of the Member States for these sectors over the period 2013 -2020, also establishes the calculation method to set emission ceilings for the period 2013-2020. These ceilings are thus to be calculated on the basis of a linear trajectory from which the starting point is the annual emission mean for the years 2008, 2009 and 2010. Decisions No. 2013/162/EU and No. 2013/634/EU set thus by Member State, the annual ceilings (or allocations, or “allowances”, even if they are not to be confused with the “allowances” of the ETS) of greenhouse gases emissions for the period 2013-2020. The annual ceilings for the years 2017-2020 have since been revised in Decision (EU) 2017/1471.

However, as these annual emissions are updated and recalculated each year by the Member States within the framework of national inventories, these annual ceilings, although they were set in the abovementioned decisions, remain provisional. Each year, EEA publishes as part of its report on emission trends and projections, an estimate of these ceilings by Member State, taking into account the latest emission data available (see the 2018 edition). These updated figures, the most recent available, are included here.

The EU target for non-ETS sectors is -30% (base 2005) (small industrial and energy plants and other more diffuse sectors (transport, residential, waste, agriculture)). The new regulation (EU) 2018/842 of 30 May 30 2018 (known as “ESR” for Effort-Sharing Regulation) allocates the effort to reduce emissions from non-ETS sectors among the Member States. France is assigned a target of -37%, the sixth highest target among the 28 (Article 4 and Annex 1). The Commission will set (via implementing regulations) the annual emission allocations (ceilings) (in t CO₂e) for the years 2021-2030, to be respected by the Member States, as for the period 2013-2020.

The LULUCF regulation 2018/841 describes a « no-debit rule » for LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry), with flexibilities. For the forest sink, the accounting is done with regard to a projected target (the Reference Forest Level, or FRL) in order to compare the sink actually met with regard to the sink which would have been met without additional measures. The French FRL will be published in early 2020.

The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 16 2005. France and the European Union ratified the Protocol on 31 May 31 2002. For France, this agreement seted a target for stabilizing emissions over the period 2008-2012 at the level from 1990 (reference year). Commission Decision 2006/944/EC of 14 December 14 2006 established for France an allocated quantity not to exceed of 2,819.6 Mt CO₂e for the first commitment period (2008-2012). In the last inventory edition, the year 1990 was estimated at 548 Mt CO₂e. The actual balance of GHG emissions over the 2008-2012 period for France at the Kyoto scope is 2,507 Mt CO₂e; with a mean of 503 Mt CO₂e/year. The targets set for France over the 2008-2012 period have therefore been met.

A probably unmet target

With a 2013-2017 mean of 465 Mt CO₂e/year, emissions are currently well above the 438 Mt CO₂e targeted for the 2013-2017 period. France therefore has three years left to lower its emissions in order to lower this annual mean. For this, if the 2018 emissions are around 445 Mt CO₂e (as provisionally pre-estimated), then the 2019 and 2020 emissions will have to be below 370 Mt CO₂e/year in mean to be able to meet the target of 438 MtCO₂e/year , a decrease of 17% in just two years.

A non-binding target… the 2^nd Kyoto period still not entered into force.

At the 8^th meeting of the Parties (CMP-8) to the Kyoto Protocol (Doha, Qatar, end of 2012), an amendment (“the Doha amendment”) to this text was formally adopted (decision 1/CMP.8) to record the 2^nd commitment period (2013-2020) for 38 Parties participating in it: EU-28, Australia, Belarus, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Norway, Switzerland and Ukraine, i.e. only two large emitters (EU and Australia). The 38 Parties are committed to individual reduction targets for the 2013-2020 period, of -20% for the EU-28, (base 1990). The Doha amendment has not yet entered into force, due to the lack of a sufficient number of ratifications to date: of the 144 required, 132 have been obtained, while the commitment period ends on 31 December 31 2020. Until the Doha amendment enters into force, the 38 Parties that have made quantified reduction commitments under the second commitment period will not be legally bound to meet them. It is therefore possible that the second period ends without ever having entered into force.

The Paris Agreement is not based on targets set during negotiations for all the Parties (top-down approach on the Kyoto Protocol model) but is based on commitments from the countries themselves, the NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions). In this framework, EU member States like France do not present their own NDC because the EU itself presents its own climate commitments in a single NDC. This NDC takes up the different aspects of European climate policy, namely a general target (reduction in 2030 of -40% compared to 1990) defined in the Climate Energy Package (see below).

The Paris Agreement was adopted at COP-21 on 12 December 12 2015, after four years of negotiation as part of a process launched at COP-17 in Durban (South Africa) in 2011. Indeed, a new subsidiary body, the ad hoc working group on the Durban platform (known as the ADP group), had been created in Durban, with the mandate to prepare, either a Protocol, a new legal instrument or a text mutually agreed with legal force under the UNFCCC framework which must be applicable to all Parties. The ADP had to complete its work at the latest in 2015 for the new agreement to be adopted at COP-21 with a view to its entry into force from 2020. The Paris Agreement was thus adopted in application of the UNFCCC by its 197 Parties. It is the first international legal instrument which links industrialized and developing countries in a new common and unified regime aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The Paris Agreement sets the target of limiting the rise in global average temperatures “significantly below” 2°C (by 2100) compared to pre-industrial levels and targeting 1.5°C if possible. To achieve this overall target, emission reduction targets, although not quantified, have been set: 1) to achieve a peak in emissions “as soon as possible“; 2) achieve reductions quickly after the peak in order to achieve a balance between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals by sinks (i.e. carbon neutrality) in the second half of the 21^st century.

All Parties must initiate and communicate ambitious efforts through “Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDCs) in a bottom-up (and not top-down as in the Kyoto Protocol) approach to achieve the overall target of the Agreement. The NDCs must be established, communicated and updated every five years and each new NDC should represent an increase in terms of ambition compared to the previous one. This review mechanism is therefore legally binding. The Parties have been invited to submit their first NDC when ratifying the Agreement. The new regime to be put into place under the Paris Agreement covering all Parties to the UNFCCC will replace that of the Kyoto Protocol, the second period of which ends on 31 December 2020. Following unprecedented political and diplomatic mobilization Globally, the Paris Agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016, more than three years before the originally scheduled deadline (2020). In fact, the two criteria for the Agreement entry into force (at least 55 ratifications by Parties representing at least 55% of global GHG emissions) were met on 5 October. At 15 October 2019, 187 Parties had ratified the Paris Agreement, which now accounts for 96.9% of global GHG emissions, according to official figures from the UNFCCC. 10 Parties have not yet ratified, including Iran (1.3%) and Turkey (1.24%).

The Paris Agreement provides a framework that has been supported by several decisions of the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA), the Agreement decision-making body. Indeed, rules, procedures and modalities were developed by the Paris Agreement (APA) working group, created during COP-21, then adopted during COP-24 (from 2 to 16 December 2018 ) for almost all aspects of the Agreement (mitigation, transparency, funding, overall assessment, committee to facilitate implementation and promote compliance with the Agreement, etc.). However, during COP-24, the adoption of the rules on the market mechanisms component (Article 6) remained pending due to a lack of consensus and due to opposition from Brazil. Thus, during the third part of CMA-1, which took place in Katowice in parallel to COP-24, the Parties adopted a set of 18 decisions (decision 3/CMA.1 to decision 20/CMA.1) which constitute the Agreement applying rules and which will allow its concrete and effective implementation from 1 January 2021.

• Overview of Policies and Regulations and climate action: download the dedicated chapter of the Secten report, July 2019 edition. (PDF, 34p.)
• COP-24 review and COP-25 issues: download our report (PDF, -p.) upcoming
• COP-23 review and COP-24 issues: download our report (PDF, 50p.)
• COP-22 review and COP-23 issues: download our report (PDF, 42p.)
• COP-21 review and COP-22 issues: download our report (PDF, 76p.)
• Technical manuel before COP-21 – 85 questions-answers (PDF, 81p.)
• Find our news, articles and files on political and climate issues: page Veille Air & Climat

At French level

• French climate policy review: French Ministry of ecology (MTES) website
• High Council for Climate (HCC): official website, 1^st report (June 2019)
• Citizen’s Climate Convention: official website
• National Low-Carbon Strategy (SNBC) (initial Strategy: December 2015; Decree n° 2015-1491 relative to SNBC; Review Proposal: December 2018 version)
• Climate Plan: summary report on MTES website, full text (2017)
• Energy transition Act (LTE): summary report on MTES website,  Act n° 2015-992 full text
• National Energy Climate Observatory (Réseau Action Climat & Cler-Réseau) : website
• Regional energy climate observatory: website expected in 2020

At EU level

• European Commission – Climate Action Directorate: official website
• EU Climate-Energy Package: summary report for the 2020 Package, summary report for the 2030 Package (fr)
• ETS Directive: directive 2003/87/EC (first version (13 October 2003) and current consolidated version (8 April 2018))
• Decision on GHGs (non-ETS sectors 2013-2020) : Decision n°406/2009/EC
• Annual emission ceilings for non-ETS sectors, by country: Climate action Directorate page
• Annual emission ceilings for non-ETS sectors by country 2013-2020 (annual allocation allowances): Decision n°2013/162/EU; Decision n°2013/634/EU; Decision (EU) 2017/1471
• EEA report on Member States’ emission trends and projections compared to targets, including updated estimates of actual non-ETS emissions from each Member State and their annual ceilings: November 2019 edition
• ESR Regulation (non-ETS sectors 2021-2030) : Regulation (EU) 2018/842
• EU commitment to the Paris Agreement: first NDC (October 2016)

At international level

• Climate Convention – UNFCCC : official website, summary on UNFCCC website, Consolidated official text version
• Kyoto Protocol: summary on UNFCCC website, official text, official text of the Doha Amendment, Doha amendment ratification state
• Paris Agreement: summary on UNFCCC website, official text, ratification state
• NDC Registry (States under the Paris Agreement commitments): interim official registry (pending the implementation of the Decision 5/CMA.1)
• NDC update observatory (Climatewatch): NDC tracker
• Commitments observatory (NDC) compared to the real emissions of the countries (ClimateWatch) website; case of France
• National Communications and Biennial Reports registry: website
• NAMAs registry: website
• UNFCCC Consultative Group of Experts (CGE): website
• Low Carbon Strategy Registry 2050: website

Links to France’s emission data

• download the data and analyzes at Secten format
• download the data at UNFCCC format
• download the data on France carbon footprint (in French, French Ecology Ministry work – see pp.38-39)

Links to EU emission data

• EU-28 UNFCCC inventory CCNUCC (EEA) – 2019 edition
• GHG emission data by EU Member State (EEA)
• GHG emission data per capita (Eurostat)
• GHG emission data by country and by sector (EEA/Eurostat)

Links to Global emission data

• Download emission data by country (UNFCCC): Industrialised countries (Annex I) and developing countries (non-annex I)
• Download CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels combustion data (IEA)
• Download CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O global emission data (aggregated at global level) (Global Carbon Project)
• Download GHG emission data (aggregated at global level) – (UN Environment) : full report, executive summary, visual feature. 
• Download GHG emission data (Climatewatch database)
• Download GHG emission data by country (Worldbank)
• Download IPCC reports: Evaluation Reports ans special Reports